Polls predict a Liberal Democrat win in Glastonbury and Somerton

By Laura Linham 4th Jul 2024

Sir Vince Cable, Sarah Dyke and supporters (Lib Dem handout)
Sir Vince Cable, Sarah Dyke and supporters (Lib Dem handout)

The polls have now closed and exit polls suggest a landslide victory for Labour nationally.

For Glastonbury and Somerton, exit polls carried out today by Ipsos UK are predicting a victory for Liberal Democrat Sarah Dyke with a 99 per cent likelihood.

Local candidates in Glastonbury and Somerton

List of candidates:

  • Tom Carter (Reform UK)
  • Jon Cousins (Green Party)
  • Sarah Dyke (Liberal Democrat)
  • Hal Hooberman (Labour)
  • Faye Purbrick (Conservative)

This contest is a rematch of the Somerton and Frome by-election, with Lib Dem candidate Sarah Dyke (who represents the Blackmoor Vale division on Somerset Council) hoping to see off Faye Purbrick (who represents the Yeovil South division) for a second time.

While an earlier YouGov poll predicted that the Tories would narrowly win back the seat, Survation predicted a significant Lib Dem victory, with Ms Dyke expected to win more than twice as many votes as Ms Purbrick or the Reform UK candidate, Tom Carter.

Now that the votes have been cast, the exit polls suggest a resounding win for the Liberal Democrats.

The Lib Dems have invested considerable resources in this part of the West Country, with party leader Sir Ed Davey visiting Glastonbury for an ice cream and bike ride on 11 June, and foreign affairs spokesperson Layla Moran rallying the troops in Langport on 26 June before her appearance at the Glastonbury Festival.

If these polls are correct, this seat will have gone from one of the safest Tory seats in the country to a Lib Dem stronghold in less than five years.

Election results

Residents of Glastonbury and Somerton will likely need to stay up until the early hours of 5 July to learn who their new MP will be. Results for this area are expected around 4am, with the count taking place at the Westlands Entertainment Venue in Yeovil. In previous years, this venue has witnessed significant electoral shifts, so a different outcome might be on the cards this time. Keep in mind that these timings are approximate and can be affected by ballot verification and recounts.

     

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